▼ Place Your 2005 IT Bets
By Jim Rapoza
Source: eWeek

Twenty years ago, a little publication started out that billed itself as "The newsweekly of IBM system microcomputers." That publication was PC Week, which, in 2000, became eWEEK. During the last two decades, we've seen our fair share of innovations, successes, failures and revolutions in IT. But there's one thing that we've seen more of than anything else: bad predictions....

Just 10 years later, Bill Gates decided that the Web and the Internet weren't all that important. (Luckily for him, Microsoft was able to turn on a dime and pretend Gates' comments were never uttered.)

But that was then. In this column, I will reverse this sorry trend of bad technology predictions by being 100 percent correct (maybe).

And I've decided to up the ante by offering my technology predictions in a gambling-based format: football pool picks.

So, without further ado, my picks for the 2005 IT season:

Other Browsers (-3) at Internet Explorer: In an earlier column, I predicted that, by early fall 2005, IE's market share would drop below 75 percent. I now think that 60 percent is more like it, what with all the momentum on the side of Mozilla's Firefox and with the Microsoft coaches trying to give the game away with questionable moves (such as no new versions of IE except on new operating systems). IE has been coasting on its reputation for years now, and it's due for a fall. I'm taking the other browsers and the points in this one.

Standards-based Apps (-7) at Proprietary Apps: In a battle in the same division as the IE browser tussle, applications built to work well on many platforms and to conform to standards go against the well-established products that work with only one operating system, such as Windows, or one browser, such as IE. (Read more...) 0105
________________________________

▼ A Peek Under Microsoft's Secret 'Bigtop'
By Mary Jo Foley
Source: Microsoft Watch

Microsoft's skunk-works distributed-computing project will likely debut as a grid-computing platform. But don't expect to see tangibles for a couple more years.

Microsoft officials have said little about the company's intentions in the grid-computing space. But that doesn't mean Microsoft is ignoring the evolving grid/distributed-computing space.

Microsoft is working on a skunk-works project that is code-named Bigtop, which is designed to allow developers to create a set of loosely coupled, distributed operating-systems components in a relatively rapid way, according to sources close to the company, who requested anonymity.

Rather than attempting to tightly couple a few high-performance systems together, Microsoft is looking at the consequences of loosely coupling a larger number of moderately powerful computers to achieve a similar result.  (Read more...) 0105
________________________________

▼Tech Trends of 2005
By Paul Thurrott
Source: Connected Home
 
...Looking forward to the technologies we're likely to see throughout 2005, I can tell you that the convergence of computing and consumer electronics is only going to continue. Let's take a look at the five tech trends that CES organizers say will be ones to watch in 2005.

Media Servers
Many people are already saving their photo and video memories to PC hard disks, and now they want to use home-networking technologies to enjoy that content—as well as other similar content, such as digital music—throughout the home. Although a home PC is a great way to acquire and manipulate digital content, a PC's typically small screen doesn't make for a great presentation. Instead, people would like to use their big-screen TV or other screens located in more comfortable rooms around the home.

The key to this scenario is a home media server, which can be a PC or other device with a large hard disk. This device stores your digital content and is connected to your other PCs and devices through the home network.....

Portable Entertainment
Apple Computer's iPod was all the rage in 2004, but the future of portable entertainment is the smart phone, which will converge cell phone functionality with that of digital cameras, PDAs, MP3 and movie playback, video games, and other forms of entertainment.  (Read more...) 0105
________________________________

▼ Survey: IT salaries down last year
By Grant Gross
Source: NetworkWorldFusion

U.S. IT and electrotechnology professionals saw a 1.5% decrease in their salaries in 2003, the first decrease since the IEEE began surveying members in 1972, the group announced Wednesday.

The median income of IEEE-USA members surveyed dropped from $101,000 for a full-time worker in 2002 to $99,500 in 2003. Until now, respondents' salaries increased even during the first years after the 2000 dot-com bust. Median income of survey respondents rose from $82,000 in 1998 to $93,100 in 2000, before topping out at $101,000 in 2002....

The drop in income could be due to a variety of factors, including a sluggish U.S. economy, an offshore outsourcing trend among technology companies, and competition from foreign workers using immigrant worker H-1B visas to get U.S. jobs, said IEEE-USA spokesman Chris McManes. Rising health insurance costs and general competition from overseas workers may have contributed to the salary decrease, IEEE-USA officials said.  (Read more...) 1204
________________________________

▼ IT Managers Sound Hype Alerts on 64-bit Computing
By Siobhan McBride
Source: Computerworld 

Australian IT managers have thrown 64-bit processor technology in the hype basket claiming it is still too early to consider migrating from 32-bit computing.

While some readers polled by Computerworld said the decision depends on operating system and application support, others said because this level of throughput is only necessary for high-end computing they will stick with 32-bit processors for some time yet. (Read more...)
________________________________

▼ Twelve Technical and Business Trends Shaping the Year Ahead
By Peter Cohen
Source: SearchCIO.com    

Since March 2000, a change in the way technology is financed has changed the way it's bought and sold. Money for technology is not free anymore. With cash scarce, companies are looking to squeeze more performance out of lower IT budgets. Technology vendors which offer tools that cut costs -- like VoIP, Linux, outsourcing, blade servers -- are taking a growing share of these dwindling budgets. In 2004, this dynamic will produce the following 12 technology trends:   

Convergence of cable and telecom industry services:  After a decade traveling distant tracks, the paths of cable service providers and telecom carriers will finally intersect in 2004. Both will vie for a common set of offerings that include video, voice and data. According to IDC, 49% of U.S. households will choose the package that offers one bill, versus 32.4% of households that will choose the package that offers only cost savings. To satisfy these consumer needs, most cable and telecom market participants will offer these services, shedding old roles as the once-distinct sectors converge. (Read more...)
________________________________

▼ Forrester: CIO Optimism And IT Spending Outlook Increase Over Q1 2004
Source: Forrester Research

Results Of Second Quarterly CIO Confidence Poll

IT spending for 2004 is off to a strong start, according to two studies from Forrester Research, Inc. Forrester's latest CIO Confidence Poll showed more optimistic outlooks among CIOs for their businesses, which translated into a higher proportion of CIOs expecting to outspend their IT budgets. At the same time, Forrester's analysis of government data on IT investment and Q1 vendor revenues showed stronger-than-expected spending on computers and software, causing Forrester to raise its 2004 US IT spending forecast to 6 percent growth over 2003 levels.

The positive sentiments are validated with an uptick in IT spending — 55 percent of the CIOs expect spending to remain on budget during the next three quarters, and another 34 percent expect to outspend their budget — up from 25 percent in the previous quarter.

Emerging technologies will benefit from this spending increase. Two-thirds of responding CIOs describe the research and application of emerging technologies as being key parts of their IT strategy, and 66 percent expect to increase the attention they pay to R&D.

Compared with 2003 predictions, these spending increases will spread to a broader range of industries during the remainder of 2004. Forrester's industry spending model indicates the following:  

Nine industries — healthcare, media, nonbank finance, consumer goods, information technology, insurance, pharmaceutical, professional services, and retail and distribution — are the most likely to increase IT spending because of above-average growth in revenues and profits during the past two quarters.

Higher oil prices may continue to put pressure on the transportation industry, lowering its spending on IT.

Budget deficits and higher spending for Iraq and Afghanistan are squeezing out increases in federal IT spending. (Full story...)
________________________________

▼ IT Jobs Continue To Disappear  
By Eric Chabrow
Source: Information Week

An analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows nearly 160,000 IT jobs have disappeared in the past three years, while the IT unemployment rate has nearly doubled since 2000.

Nearly 160,000 fewer Americans call themselves IT professionals today than three years ago. Despite fewer workers within the profession, the IT unemployment rate has nearly doubled since the beginning of the millennium.

According to an analysis by InformationWeek of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employment data, the number of IT managers has soared since 2000, while the ranks of computer programmers and computer scientists-systems analysts has plummeted. (Read more...)
________________________________

▼ IDC Forecasts Strong Growth for Software Subscription Revenues
Source: TMCnet.com 

...While Revenue from Perpetual Licenses Declines

Worldwide revenues associated with subscription software licenses are on an upward swing. According to a new IDC study, software subscription licensing will grow at a 16.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2003-2008, while perpetual licenses will experience a -0.3% CAGR. By the end of the forecast period, subscription license revenues for the worldwide software market will reach $43 billion.  

"The increased interest in subscription licensing stems from industry consensus that traditional licensing models are no longer suitable," said Amy Konary, program manager for IDC's new Pricing, Licensing and Delivery service. "Subscription models help vendors increase the predictability of their software revenues, making it easier to demonstrate future health. Customers enjoy the low up-front cost of the subscription model and the ability to build an ongoing relationship with the software provider that they pay on an ongoing basis." (Read more...)
________________________________

▼ Systems Needed to Preserve Accountability in a Data-Rich World
By Peter Coffee
Source: eWeek

Even where good "corporate memory" systems are in place, we lose information to technology changes, technology failures and individual acts of carelessness or concealment.

The story is familiar—even though its details are new. A person entrusted with power and responsibility comes under suspicion of misconduct, and sensitive information controlled by that person suddenly goes missing. 

These events could have taken place at any time since the invention of writing. As befits the current century, however, the affair at hand did not involve anything so quaint as "inadvertent" loss or shredding of paper documents. In 2004, the central figure is not a secretary but a piece of data-destruction software—supposedly downloaded free from a pop-up ad. (Read more...)
________________________________

▼ RFID Kick-Start
By Beth Bacheldor
Source: Information Week

A year ago RFID got rolling. Will the momentum continue?

Mike O'Shea was vacationing in Orlando when his cell phone rang around 7 p.m. A case of Kimberly-Clark Corp.'s Scott paper towels tagged with a radio-frequency identification label had just passed under a scanner in Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s Sanger, Texas, distribution center. O'Shea and his wife toasted the moment with mango daiquiries. The celebration by Kimberly-Clark's director of RFID strategies and technology was about more than the first success in Wal-Mart's live RFID trial, now about 4 weeks old. It marked the end of a 12-month process that changed how businesses think about RFID.

It was at last year's Retail Systems conference in Chicago that Wal-Mart CIO Linda Dillman seized the industry's attention by announcing the goal of having the retailer's top 100 suppliers deliver cases and pallets with RFID tags by January 2005. Last week, Wal-Mart was back at the Retail Systems conference, promising to get 200 more suppliers into the RFID effort this summer and to keep the pressure on suppliers, tech companies, and even rivals to make RFID a reality. "This joint work has ensured that many months, and even years, have been taken out of the traditional development cycle for a project like RFID," Wal-Mart stores division CEO Mike Duke said. (Read more...)
________________________________

▼ IBM Takes On Demand Into The Cubicle
By Jim Wagner
Source: internet.com

Figuring its infrastructure model for business optimization would work just as well in the cubicle, IBM (Quote, Chart) retooled and launched Tuesday its newest utility computing offering -- Workplace on demand.  

For months, the Armonk, N.Y. company has been conducting a marketing blitz on its new back-office services/software/hardware solution; code-named Project Symphony, it is nearing completion as a complete solution, though pieces of the solution are available for sale today. 

Like the heat that you use or the water you drink, utility computing charges businesses for the IT services they use, when they have the need. IBM thinks they've got it to work for the infrastructure, now they want to see if they can make it work for the printers, PCs, faxes, copiers, PDAs and laptops used by corporate workers. (Read more...)